release: probabilistic head + ConfigEntsoe feature-flag parity#351
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Implements chapter-16 "adopt next" #3 (point → calibrated bands) as a thin, sf2-safe convenience layer over the EXISTING interval machinery — it does not duplicate predict_interval / predict_quantiles (residual bootstrapping + split-conformal already on ForecasterRecursive). Adds native quantile regression heads instead. - quantile_lgbm_forecaster_factory(config, quantiles=(0.1,0.5,0.9)) → one ForecasterRecursive per quantile with LGBMRegressor(objective="quantile", alpha=q), same lag/rolling config as the default factory. Deterministic, LightGBM-only. Refs hong16b, roma19a. - predict_quantile_band(forecasters, steps, enforce_monotonic=True) → assembles the per-quantile forecasts into q_<level> columns and applies the Chernozhukov rearrangement (row-wise sort) to remove quantile crossing. - Fail-safe quantile validation (open (0,1), unique, non-empty). For distribution-free coverage, compose with the existing ForecasterRecursive.predict_interval(method="conformal"). Tests: 14 new (factory params, validation, rearrangement, fit/predict integration). Suite 2413 passed; factories.py 100% coverage. Docs regenerated. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
…robabilistic-head feat(forecaster): quantile-LightGBM probabilistic head factory (#3)
## [19.3.0-rc.2](v19.3.0-rc.1...v19.3.0-rc.2) (2026-06-08) ### Features * **forecaster:** quantile-LightGBM probabilistic head factory ([d44093f](d44093f)), closes [#3](#3)
ConfigEntsoe is an independent dataclass (not a ConfigMulti subclass), so the
opt-in feature flags added to ConfigMulti in 19.2.0/19.3.0 were unreachable for
the ENTSO-E single-target pipeline (the one the team_4 lecture uses). Mirror
them so ConfigEntsoe(...) can enable them:
- use_population_weighted_weather, include_degree_hours,
include_apparent_temperature, degree_hours_base_{heating,cooling} (19.2.0)
- include_ephemeris_features, include_day_type_features (19.3.0)
All default off → byte-identical baseline. base.py already reads them via
getattr, so no wiring change is needed. Adds a parity test that fails if a
future ConfigMulti feature flag is not mirrored here.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
…onfigentsoe-feature-flag-parity feat(configurator): mirror new feature flags onto ConfigEntsoe (parity)
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Promotes #349 (feat(forecaster): quantile-LightGBM probabilistic head) and #350 (feat(configurator): ConfigEntsoe feature-flag parity). Expected bump: minor → 19.4.0. All develop CI green. 🤖 Generated with Claude Code