Site updates

.github/workflows/attest-live-log.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
+name: attest live log
+
+# Tamper-evident submission timestamps for the live forecast log.
+#
+# The paper claims the commit history of this public fork proves *when* each
+# daily prediction was submitted. Git author/committer dates are client-supplied
+# and trivially forgeable (`git commit --date=...`), so they cannot be the trust
+# anchor. This workflow makes GitHub the timestamping authority: on every push to
+# `main` that touches the append-only live log, it cuts a lightweight GitHub
+# Release. A Release's `created_at` is set server-side by GitHub at creation and
+# cannot be back-dated by a client — that server timestamp is the anchor.
+#
+# An auditor compares the Release `created_at` against the `submission_timestamp`
+# inside the newly-committed log record: they should agree to within minutes.
+# See workshop_experiments/workshop_experiments/live/ops/HONESTY.md for the full
+# trust model and its limitations.
+#
+# The `paths:` filter mirrors `log_dir` in
+# workshop_experiments/workshop_experiments/live/live_config.yaml.
+
+on:
+  push:
+    branches:
+      - main
+    paths:
+      - workshop_experiments/workshop_experiments/live/log/**
+
+# Least privilege: creating a Release (and its tag) needs contents: write only.
+permissions:
+  contents: write
+
+# Never run two attestations for the same head concurrently.
+concurrency:
+  group: attest-live-log-${{ github.sha }}
+  cancel-in-progress: false
+
+jobs:
+  attest:
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v7.0.0
+        with:
+          # Need the previous commit to diff which log files changed.
+          fetch-depth: 2
+
+      - name: Create attestation release
+        env:
+          # gh CLI authenticates via GITHUB_TOKEN.
+          GH_TOKEN: ${{ github.token }}
+          BEFORE_SHA: ${{ github.event.before }}
+          HEAD_SHA: ${{ github.sha }}
+        run: |
+          set -euo pipefail
+
+          LOG_PATH="workshop_experiments/workshop_experiments/live/log"
+          SHORT_SHA="$(git rev-parse --short=7 "$HEAD_SHA")"
+          UTC_DATE="$(date -u +%Y-%m-%d)"
+          TAG="attest/${UTC_DATE}-${SHORT_SHA}"
+
+          # Idempotent: if this attestation tag already exists, do nothing. This
+          # makes re-runs safe and avoids duplicate releases for the same head.
+          if gh release view "$TAG" >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+            echo "Release $TAG already exists; skipping."
+            exit 0
+          fi
+
+          # Which log files changed in this push? Diff against the pre-push tip
+          # when we have it; otherwise fall back to the head commit alone (first
+          # push to a branch, or a force-push, reports an all-zero before-sha).
+          ZERO_SHA="0000000000000000000000000000000000000000"
+          if [ -n "${BEFORE_SHA:-}" ] && [ "$BEFORE_SHA" != "$ZERO_SHA" ] \
+             && git cat-file -e "${BEFORE_SHA}^{commit}" 2>/dev/null; then
+            CHANGED="$(git diff --name-only "$BEFORE_SHA" "$HEAD_SHA" -- "$LOG_PATH" || true)"
+          else
+            CHANGED="$(git show --name-only --pretty=format: "$HEAD_SHA" -- "$LOG_PATH" | sed '/^$/d' || true)"
+          fi
+
+          # Assemble the release body. Server-side `created_at` (visible in the
+          # release metadata / API) is the trust anchor; the head SHA and file
+          # list below are the human-readable cross-check.
+          {
+            echo "Server-timestamped attestation of live forecast-log submission."
+            echo
+            echo "- **Head commit:** \`${HEAD_SHA}\`"
+            echo "- **Attested at (UTC date):** ${UTC_DATE}"
+            echo
+            echo "The trust anchor is this Release's server-set \`created_at\`, not any"
+            echo "git author/committer date. See"
+            echo "\`workshop_experiments/workshop_experiments/live/ops/HONESTY.md\`."
+            echo
+            echo "**Changed log files:**"
+            echo
+            if [ -n "$CHANGED" ]; then
+              echo "$CHANGED" | sed 's/^/- `/; s/$/`/'
+            else
+              echo "- (none detected under \`${LOG_PATH}\`)"
+            fi
+          } > release_body.md
+
+          gh release create "$TAG" \
+            --title "Live log attestation ${UTC_DATE} (${SHORT_SHA})" \
+            --notes-file release_body.md \
+            --target "$HEAD_SHA"
+
+          echo "Created release $TAG."

.github/workflows/deploy-blog.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
+name: deploy blog
+
+# Publishes this fork's two-part blog series to GitHub Pages.
+# This is the public site for agentic-forecasting-live: a bootcamp-project
+# writeup built on VectorInstitute/agentic-forecasting.
+#
+# One-time repo setting (cannot be scripted from the workflow itself):
+#   Settings -> Pages -> Source: GitHub Actions
+#
+# This workflow owns Pages on this fork. The monitor workflow
+# (deploy-monitor.yml) is still manual-only and must not be run — it would
+# replace this site with monitor/site/. Fold the dashboard in as /monitor/
+# once publication approval lands.
+
+on:
+  push:
+    branches:
+      - main
+    paths:
+      - blog/**
+      - .github/workflows/deploy-blog.yml
+  workflow_dispatch:
+
+permissions:
+  contents: read
+  pages: write
+  id-token: write
+
+concurrency:
+  group: pages
+  cancel-in-progress: false
+
+jobs:
+  deploy:
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    environment:
+      name: github-pages
+      url: ${{ steps.deployment.outputs.page_url }}
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v7.0.0
+
+      - name: Assemble Pages site
+        run: python3 blog/assemble_pages.py
+
+      - name: Configure Pages
+        uses: actions/configure-pages@v5
+
+      - name: Upload site artifact
+        uses: actions/upload-pages-artifact@v3
+        with:
+          path: blog/site/build
+
+      - name: Deploy to GitHub Pages
+        id: deployment
+        uses: actions/deploy-pages@v4

.github/workflows/deploy-monitor.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+name: deploy monitor
+
+# Publishes the zero-backend experiment-monitor site (monitor/site/) to GitHub Pages.
+# A fixture-validation gate runs first, so a data file that violates the schemas fails
+# the deploy instead of shipping. Requires a one-time repo setting:
+#   Settings -> Pages -> Source: GitHub Actions   (see monitor/README.md).
+#
+# THIS FORK: GitHub Pages is owned by the blog series (deploy-blog.yml). Do not
+# run this workflow — it would replace the published site with monitor/site/.
+# Fold the dashboard in as /monitor/ once Vector Institute publication approval
+# lands. Until then, serve the monitor locally (see monitor/README.md).
+
+# MANUAL-ONLY (workflow_dispatch) until Vector Institute publication approval lands.
+# The monitor is deliberately NOT auto-published: while approval is pending, the
+# supported way to view the dashboard is locally (see monitor/README.md). We keep
+# this workflow in place so a Pages deploy is one click away once approved, but we
+# do NOT wire a `push` trigger — no commit to `main` should silently publish the
+# site to a public URL before sign-off. Re-add the `push:` trigger (site/schemas/
+# validate_fixtures.py/this file) at that point to restore automatic deploys.
+on:
+  workflow_dispatch:
+
+# Least-privilege token for Pages deploy.
+permissions:
+  contents: read
+  pages: write
+  id-token: write
+
+# One in-flight deploy at a time; don't cancel a running publish.
+concurrency:
+  group: pages
+  cancel-in-progress: false
+
+jobs:
+  validate-fixtures:
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v7.0.0
+
+      - name: Install uv
+        uses: astral-sh/setup-uv@fac544c07dec837d0ccb6301d7b5580bf5edae39
+        with:
+          version: "0.9.11"
+          enable-cache: true
+
+      - name: "Set up Python"
+        uses: actions/setup-python@ece7cb06caefa5fff74198d8649806c4678c61a1
+        with:
+          python-version-file: ".python-version"
+
+      - name: Validate fixtures against schemas
+        # --no-project keeps this fast: no workspace build, just jsonschema (+ referencing).
+        run: uv run --no-project --with jsonschema python monitor/validate_fixtures.py
+
+  deploy:
+    needs: validate-fixtures
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    environment:
+      name: github-pages
+      url: ${{ steps.deployment.outputs.page_url }}
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@v7.0.0
+
+      - name: Configure Pages
+        uses: actions/configure-pages@v5
+
+      - name: Upload site artifact
+        uses: actions/upload-pages-artifact@v3
+        with:
+          path: monitor/site
+
+      - name: Deploy to GitHub Pages
+        id: deployment
+        uses: actions/deploy-pages@v4

.github/workflows/unit_tests.yml

@@ -57,4 +57,4 @@ jobs:
           uv venv .venv
           source .venv/bin/activate
           uv sync --all-extras --dev --all-packages
-          uv run pytest -m "not integration_test" tests ../implementations/tests
+          uv run pytest -m "not integration_test" tests ../implementations/tests ../workshop_experiments/tests

.gitignore

@@ -42,6 +42,11 @@ implementations/**/data/
 !implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/data/predictions/
 !implementations/energy_oil_forecasting/data/predictions/**
 
+# blog/dist/ is regenerable (`blog/render.sh`) but the canonical rendered
+# HTML is committed so it can be opened/emailed without a build step
+!blog/dist/
+!blog/dist/**
+
 # workspace-specific agents
 .github/agents/
 .github/prompts/

README.md

@@ -1,6 +1,10 @@
-# Agentic Forecasting
+# Agentic Forecasting Live
 
-A foundation for building, evaluating, and comparing forecasting systems — conventional numerical models, LLM Processes, and agentic forecasters — on real economic, financial, and event-prediction tasks.
+> **This is a fork.** [`VectorInstitute/agentic-forecasting`](https://github.com/VectorInstitute/agentic-forecasting) is the bootcamp foundation. This repository is a worked example of what a participant project can look like: a live evaluation of news-reading forecasting agents, written up as a two-part series.
+>
+> **Read the series** (hosted on this fork’s GitHub Pages): [Part 1 — An honest scoreboard for market forecasting](https://vectorinstitute.github.io/agentic-forecasting-live/part-1/) · [Part 2 — Forecasting agents that read the news](https://vectorinstitute.github.io/agentic-forecasting-live/part-2/) · [series home](https://vectorinstitute.github.io/agentic-forecasting-live/).
+
+A foundation for building, evaluating, and comparing forecasting systems — conventional numerical models, LLM Processes, and agentic forecasters — on real economic, financial, and event-prediction tasks. The library and reference implementations below are kept in sync with origin `main` so this fork stays a drop-in descendant of that foundation.
 
 ## Contents
 
@@ -73,6 +77,8 @@ On Coder workspaces, bootcamp keys (`OPENAI_*`, `E2B_*`, `LANGFUSE_*`) live in y
 aieng-forecasting/   # Installable library: import as aieng.forecasting
 implementations/     # Self-contained reference implementations + co-located specs
 guides/              # Step-by-step strategy guides for common build-phase tasks
+blog/                # Two-part series (this fork); GitHub Pages source
+workshop_experiments/  # Live TSX / S&P 500 evaluation that the series reports
 scripts/             # Data-fetch scripts + E2B template builder
 tests/               # Onboarding integration tests (not run in CI)
 planning-docs/       # Architecture notes and the extension/roadmap catalog
@@ -204,7 +210,8 @@ uv run pre-commit run --all-files
 
 - Per-implementation READMEs under [`implementations/`](implementations/) — the primary user surface.
 - [`guides/`](guides/) — self-contained, step-by-step strategy guides for the most common build-phase tasks: onboarding a dataset, creating an experiment, customizing an agent's strategy, and auditing a result before you believe it.
-- [Architecture atlas](https://vectorinstitute.github.io/agentic-forecasting/architecture-atlas.html) ([source](docs/architecture-atlas.html)) — a self-contained visual atlas of the system architecture: the loop, the temporal fence, predictor families, the harness, agent anatomy, and how each reference implementation instantiates them.
+- [This fork’s series](https://vectorinstitute.github.io/agentic-forecasting-live/) ([source](blog/)) — the two-part live-evaluation writeup hosted on this repository’s GitHub Pages.
+- [Architecture atlas](https://vectorinstitute.github.io/agentic-forecasting/architecture-atlas.html) ([source](docs/architecture-atlas.html)) — the origin repo’s visual atlas of the system architecture: the loop, the temporal fence, predictor families, the harness, agent anatomy, and how each reference implementation instantiates them.
 - [`aieng-forecasting/README.md`](aieng-forecasting/README.md) and [`aieng-forecasting/aieng/forecasting/methods/README.md`](aieng-forecasting/aieng/forecasting/methods/README.md) — the library and the method catalog.
 - [`planning-docs/roadmap.md`](planning-docs/roadmap.md) — architecture principles and extension ideas.
 

aieng-forecasting/aieng/forecasting/data/features.py

@@ -155,6 +155,28 @@ def business_daily_ffill(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
     return canonical_three_col(out)
 
 
+def business_daily_zero_fill(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    """Reindex a daily *return* feature onto the business calendar, zero-filling gaps.
+
+    The return-series counterpart of :func:`business_daily_ffill`. When an
+    instrument's market is closed (e.g. a US holiday while the TSX trades), its
+    incremental return over that day is zero — the price cannot move without a
+    session. Forward-filling would instead repeat the previous session's return,
+    double-counting a move that happened once; zero-filling keeps the running sum
+    of daily returns equal to the cumulative price change. Leak-safe for the same
+    reason as forward-filling: inserted values encode no future information.
+    """
+    if df.empty:
+        return df
+    x = df.copy().sort_values("timestamp").reset_index(drop=True)
+    idx = pd.bdate_range(x["timestamp"].min(), x["timestamp"].max())
+    filled = x.set_index("timestamp")["value"].reindex(idx).fillna(0.0)
+    out = filled.reset_index()
+    out.columns = ["timestamp", "value"]
+    out["released_at"] = out["timestamp"]
+    return canonical_three_col(out)
+
+
 def log_ratio_level_feature(
     numerator_df: pd.DataFrame,
     denominator_df: pd.DataFrame,

aieng-forecasting/aieng/forecasting/methods/agentic/__init__.py

@@ -60,6 +60,7 @@
 """
 
 from aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.adaptive_skill import AdaptiveSkillState, AdaptiveSkillStore
+from aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.adaptive_skill_tools import build_skill_tools
 from aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.adk_runner import AdkTextRunner, AdkTextRunnerConfig
 from aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.agent_factory import (
     AgentConfig,
@@ -72,7 +73,13 @@
     format_backtest_report,
     load_context_documents,
 )
+from aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.domain import (
+    DomainConfig,
+    build_adaptive_config,
+    build_analyst_config,
+)
 from aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.forecast_tool import ForecastTool
+from aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.history import compress_history
 from aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.outputs import (
     AgentCategoryProbability,
     AgentForecastOutput,
@@ -81,8 +88,17 @@
     ContinuousAgentForecastOutput,
     ContinuousAgentHorizonForecast,
     DiscreteAgentForecastOutput,
+    ScenarioAgentForecastOutput,
+    ScenarioCard,
 )
 from aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.predictor import AgentPredictor, ForecastPromptBuilder
+from aieng.forecasting.methods.agentic.strategy_state import (
+    CalibrationCorrection,
+    Hypothesis,
+    Observation,
+    StrategyState,
+    VersionEntry,
+)
 
 
 __all__: list[str] = [
@@ -95,16 +111,28 @@
     "AgentForecastOutput",
     "AgentPredictor",
     "AgentQuantileForecast",
+    "CalibrationCorrection",
     "CategoricalAgentForecastOutput",
     "CodeExecutionConfig",
     "ContinuousAgentForecastOutput",
     "ContinuousAgentHorizonForecast",
     "ContextRetrievalConfig",
     "DiscreteAgentForecastOutput",
+    "DomainConfig",
     "ForecastPromptBuilder",
     "ForecastTool",
+    "Hypothesis",
+    "Observation",
+    "ScenarioAgentForecastOutput",
+    "ScenarioCard",
+    "StrategyState",
+    "VersionEntry",
+    "build_adaptive_config",
     "build_adk_agent",
+    "build_analyst_config",
     "build_curriculum_prompt",
+    "build_skill_tools",
+    "compress_history",
     "format_backtest_report",
     "load_context_documents",
 ]