[codex] Backport congressional district outcome percentages to 0.x

changelog_entry.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+- bump: minor
+  changes:
+    added:
+    - Winner, loser, and no-change percentages for `congressional_district_impact`
+      in legacy 0.x economy comparisons

policyengine/outputs/macro/comparison/calculate_economy_comparison.py

@@ -854,6 +854,9 @@ class USCongressionalDistrictImpact(BaseModel):
     district: str  # e.g., "GA-05"
     average_household_income_change: float
     relative_household_income_change: float
+    winner_percentage: float
+    loser_percentage: float
+    no_change_percentage: float
 
 
 class USCongressionalDistrictBreakdownWithValues(BaseModel):
@@ -906,9 +909,22 @@ def us_congressional_district_breakdown(
         district_name = geoid_to_district_name(geoid)
 
         # Extract household data for this district
-        weights = [baseline.household_weight[i] for i in indices]
-        baseline_incomes = [baseline.household_net_income[i] for i in indices]
-        reform_incomes = [reform.household_net_income[i] for i in indices]
+        weights = np.array([baseline.household_weight[i] for i in indices])
+        baseline_incomes = np.array(
+            [baseline.household_net_income[i] for i in indices]
+        )
+        reform_incomes = np.array(
+            [reform.household_net_income[i] for i in indices]
+        )
+        household_count_people = getattr(
+            baseline, "household_count_people", None
+        )
+        if household_count_people is None:
+            people_weights = weights
+        else:
+            people_weights = weights * np.array(
+                [household_count_people[i] for i in indices]
+            )
 
         baseline_income = MicroSeries(baseline_incomes, weights=weights)
         reform_income = MicroSeries(reform_incomes, weights=weights)
@@ -925,6 +941,30 @@ def us_congressional_district_breakdown(
         relative_household_income_change = (
             reform_income.sum() / baseline_income.sum() - 1
         )
+        income_change = (reform_incomes - baseline_incomes) / np.maximum(
+            baseline_incomes, 1.0
+        )
+        total_people = float(np.sum(people_weights))
+
+        if total_people == 0:
+            winner_percentage = 0.0
+            loser_percentage = 0.0
+            no_change_percentage = 1.0
+        else:
+            winner_percentage = float(
+                np.sum(people_weights[income_change > 1e-3]) / total_people
+            )
+            loser_percentage = float(
+                np.sum(people_weights[income_change <= -1e-3]) / total_people
+            )
+            no_change_percentage = float(
+                np.sum(
+                    people_weights[
+                        (income_change > -1e-3) & (income_change <= 1e-3)
+                    ]
+                )
+                / total_people
+            )
 
         districts.append(
             USCongressionalDistrictImpact(
@@ -935,6 +975,9 @@ def us_congressional_district_breakdown(
                 relative_household_income_change=float(
                     relative_household_income_change
                 ),
+                winner_percentage=winner_percentage,
+                loser_percentage=loser_percentage,
+                no_change_percentage=no_change_percentage,
             )
         )
 

tests/country/test_us_congressional_districts.py

@@ -185,11 +185,13 @@ def test__given_income_increase__then_returns_positive_changes(self):
         baseline = create_mock_single_economy(
             household_net_income=[50000.0, 60000.0, 70000.0],
             household_weight=[1000.0, 1000.0, 1000.0],
+            household_count_people=[2, 2, 2],
             congressional_district_geoid=[1305, 1305, 1305],
         )
         reform = create_mock_single_economy(
             household_net_income=[51000.0, 61000.0, 71000.0],
             household_weight=[1000.0, 1000.0, 1000.0],
+            household_count_people=[2, 2, 2],
             congressional_district_geoid=[1305, 1305, 1305],
         )
         country_id = "us"
@@ -211,11 +213,13 @@ def test__given_income_decrease__then_returns_negative_changes(self):
         baseline = create_mock_single_economy(
             household_net_income=[50000.0, 60000.0, 70000.0],
             household_weight=[1000.0, 1000.0, 1000.0],
+            household_count_people=[2, 2, 2],
             congressional_district_geoid=[1305, 1305, 1305],
         )
         reform = create_mock_single_economy(
             household_net_income=[49000.0, 59000.0, 69000.0],
             household_weight=[1000.0, 1000.0, 1000.0],
+            household_count_people=[2, 2, 2],
             congressional_district_geoid=[1305, 1305, 1305],
         )
         country_id = "us"
@@ -239,11 +243,13 @@ def test__given_weighted_households__then_calculates_weighted_averages(
         baseline = create_mock_single_economy(
             household_net_income=[50000.0, 100000.0],
             household_weight=[3000.0, 1000.0],  # First household has 3x weight
+            household_count_people=[2, 2],
             congressional_district_geoid=[1305, 1305],
         )
         reform = create_mock_single_economy(
             household_net_income=[51000.0, 101000.0],
             household_weight=[3000.0, 1000.0],
+            household_count_people=[2, 2],
             congressional_district_geoid=[1305, 1305],
         )
         country_id = "us"
@@ -279,9 +285,69 @@ def test__given_district_impact__then_has_required_fields(
             assert hasattr(district, "district")
             assert hasattr(district, "average_household_income_change")
             assert hasattr(district, "relative_household_income_change")
+            assert hasattr(district, "winner_percentage")
+            assert hasattr(district, "loser_percentage")
+            assert hasattr(district, "no_change_percentage")
             assert isinstance(district.district, str)
             assert isinstance(district.average_household_income_change, float)
             assert isinstance(district.relative_household_income_change, float)
+            assert isinstance(district.winner_percentage, float)
+            assert isinstance(district.loser_percentage, float)
+            assert isinstance(district.no_change_percentage, float)
+
+    def test__given_mixed_outcomes__then_returns_people_weighted_percentages(
+        self,
+    ):
+        # Given: one winner, one loser, one unchanged household with different
+        # people counts. Outcome shares should be people-weighted.
+        baseline = create_mock_single_economy(
+            household_net_income=[1000.0, 1000.0, 1000.0],
+            household_weight=[1.0, 1.0, 1.0],
+            household_count_people=[1, 2, 3],
+            congressional_district_geoid=[1305, 1305, 1305],
+        )
+        reform = create_mock_single_economy(
+            household_net_income=[1002.0, 999.0, 1000.0],
+            household_weight=[1.0, 1.0, 1.0],
+            household_count_people=[1, 2, 3],
+            congressional_district_geoid=[1305, 1305, 1305],
+        )
+
+        # When
+        result = us_congressional_district_breakdown(baseline, reform, "us")
+
+        # Then
+        district = result.districts[0]
+        assert district.winner_percentage == pytest.approx(1 / 6)
+        assert district.loser_percentage == pytest.approx(2 / 6)
+        assert district.no_change_percentage == pytest.approx(3 / 6)
+
+    def test__given_missing_household_count_people__then_falls_back_to_household_weights(
+        self,
+    ):
+        # Given: people counts are unavailable, so outcome shares should fall
+        # back to household weights.
+        baseline = create_mock_single_economy(
+            household_net_income=[1000.0, 1000.0],
+            household_weight=[3.0, 1.0],
+            household_count_people=None,
+            congressional_district_geoid=[1305, 1305],
+        )
+        reform = create_mock_single_economy(
+            household_net_income=[1002.0, 998.0],
+            household_weight=[3.0, 1.0],
+            household_count_people=None,
+            congressional_district_geoid=[1305, 1305],
+        )
+
+        # When
+        result = us_congressional_district_breakdown(baseline, reform, "us")
+
+        # Then
+        district = result.districts[0]
+        assert district.winner_percentage == pytest.approx(0.75)
+        assert district.loser_percentage == pytest.approx(0.25)
+        assert district.no_change_percentage == pytest.approx(0.0)
 
 
 class TestCongressionalDistrictGeoidExtraction:

tests/fixtures/simulation.py

@@ -91,13 +91,15 @@ def mock_simulation_with_cliff_vars():
 def create_mock_single_economy(
     household_net_income: list[float],
     household_weight: list[float],
+    household_count_people: list[int] | None = None,
     congressional_district_geoid: list[int] | None = None,
 ):
     """Create a mock SingleEconomy with specified household data.
 
     Args:
         household_net_income: List of household net incomes
         household_weight: List of household weights
+        household_count_people: List of people per household or None
         congressional_district_geoid: List of district geoids (SSDD format) or None
 
     Returns:
@@ -106,6 +108,7 @@ def create_mock_single_economy(
     mock_economy = Mock()
     mock_economy.household_net_income = household_net_income
     mock_economy.household_weight = household_weight
+    mock_economy.household_count_people = household_count_people
     mock_economy.congressional_district_geoid = congressional_district_geoid
     return mock_economy
 
@@ -128,6 +131,7 @@ def mock_single_economy_with_ga_districts():
             100000.0,
         ],
         household_weight=[1000.0, 1000.0, 1000.0, 1000.0, 1000.0, 1000.0],
+        household_count_people=[2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2],
         congressional_district_geoid=[1305, 1305, 1305, 1306, 1306, 1306],
     )
 
@@ -163,6 +167,7 @@ def mock_single_economy_with_multi_state_districts():
             1000.0,
             1000.0,
         ],
+        household_count_people=[2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2],
         congressional_district_geoid=[
             1305,
             1305,
@@ -182,6 +187,7 @@ def mock_single_economy_without_districts():
     return create_mock_single_economy(
         household_net_income=[50000.0, 60000.0, 70000.0],
         household_weight=[1000.0, 1000.0, 1000.0],
+        household_count_people=[2, 2, 2],
         congressional_district_geoid=[0, 0, 0],
     )
 
@@ -192,5 +198,6 @@ def mock_single_economy_with_null_districts():
     return create_mock_single_economy(
         household_net_income=[50000.0, 60000.0, 70000.0],
         household_weight=[1000.0, 1000.0, 1000.0],
+        household_count_people=[2, 2, 2],
         congressional_district_geoid=None,
     )