Baseline Thesis SPM forecast demo + closing divider (iariw-2026)

slideshows/iariw-2026/DEMO-SCRIPT.md

@@ -3,10 +3,11 @@
 The deck embeds the LIVE apps directly, each with an Expand button: slide 23 (Axiom App,
 Belgium), 28 (cliff analyzer, axiom.org/snap), 30 (chatbot, axiom.org/chatbot), 36
 (chronicle.institute), 43 (calibration dashboard), 49 (policyengine.org/be), 55 (Thesis
-bill analyses, app.thesisinstitute.org/bills). You can drive the whole demo without leaving
-the deck; preloaded tabs remain smoother for deep interaction. Every beat has static
-screenshot slides right after it (24–27, 29, 31, 37, 44, 50, 56). If the network dies
-mid-beat, advance and keep talking.
+baseline forecast, app.thesisinstitute.org/spm-child-poverty-2025), 57 (Thesis bill
+analyses, app.thesisinstitute.org/bills). You can drive the whole demo without leaving the
+deck; preloaded tabs remain smoother for deep interaction. Every beat has static screenshot
+slides right after it (24–27, 29, 31, 37, 44, 50, 56, 58). If the network dies mid-beat,
+advance and keep talking.
 
 Cliff analyzer beat: Run reform → point at the allotment cliff near $2,100 and the
 marginal-rate spike → drag the earned income deduction slider → the cliff moves.
@@ -25,6 +26,7 @@ AI" → grounded vs plain on one screen. Never repeat the page's "certified" wor
    - https://chronicle.institute
    - https://axiom.org/snap  (cliff analyzer)
    - https://axiom.org/chatbot  (chatbot — send one warm-up question so the backend is hot)
+   - https://app.thesisinstitute.org/spm-child-poverty-2025  (baseline forecast)
    - https://app.thesisinstitute.org/bills
 2. On policyengine.org/be: confirm the yellow provenance banner renders and the
    "Society-wide impacts" tab shows €0.00B at baseline.

slideshows/iariw-2026/SPEAKER-NOTES.md

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 
 IARIW–CAPE workshop "New technologies for evidence-based policy making"
 Thursday 27 August 2026 · 14:40–15:30 · Room P02, UCLouvain Saint-Louis, Brussels
-Deck: policyengine.org/slides/iariw-2026 (local: /slides/iariw-2026) · 59 slides, ~48 presented
+Deck: policyengine.org/slides/iariw-2026 (local: /slides/iariw-2026) · 62 slides, ~50 presented
 
 **Room:** IARIW measurement economists; Koen Algoed (Director General, Budget and Finance,
 Flemish Region) and Jean-Baptiste Traversa (head of microsimulation modelling, FPS Finance)
@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ modeling groups' publication records.
 | 15:09 | 2 · Chronicle | 34–37 (skip 37) | 3 |
 | 15:12 | 3 · Microcosm | 38–45 (skip 44) | 6 |
 | 15:18 | 4 · PolicyEngine | 46–51 (skip 50) | 5 |
-| 15:23 | 5 · Thesis / together + the closing forecast beat | 52–59 (skip 56) | 7 |
+| 15:23 | 5 · Thesis → 6 · Looking forward | 52–62 (skip 56, 58) | 7 |
 
 Cut-first if long: Microplex (37), WhoUsesIt (40), and skim Evo3/Evo5. Static screenshot
 slides (22–25, 36, 42) are presented ONLY if the network dies.
@@ -244,13 +244,23 @@ We intend to score that. And the deeper point for 16:00: policy takes
 a different shape when baseline conditions change quickly; if you assign real probability to
 that, how does this community arm policymakers to respond?
 
-### 55 · DEMO — Thesis bill analyses (1.5m; 56 is the fallback)
+### 55 · DEMO — a baseline Thesis forecast: SPM child poverty (1.5m; 56 is the fallback)
+app.thesisinstitute.org/spm-child-poverty-2025: a live forecast cell on a published
+government data point — the 2025 SPM child poverty rate with an 80% interval, the Census
+history, and the agent's full reasoning trace (assumptions AND caveats in the open; the
+trace may show prototype infra notes — that transparency is the design). Graded when the
+Census publishes in September. Start here so the bills demo lands as "the same machinery,
+pointed at legislation."
+
+### 57 · DEMO — Thesis bill analyses (1.5m; 58 is the fallback)
 app.thesisinstitute.org/bills: "start from the bill, derive the outcomes" — each analysis
 reads a bill's provisions, separates countersignable goals from likely effects, and maps
 candidate outcome metrics against the live forecast registry. The opening question, made
 practice. Labeled prototype; say so.
 
-### 57 · And if the baseline itself moves? (1.5m — the closing forecast beat)
+### 59 · Looking forward (divider, 15s)
+
+### 60 · And if the baseline itself moves? (1.5m — the closing forecast beat)
 Everything before this slide matters regardless of how the economy evolves; if conditions
 change quickly, being nimble matters more. The chart: professional forecasters disagree less
 than ever about long-run growth (SPF 10-year IQR 0.2pp, half its 1990s level) — but asked
@@ -260,12 +270,12 @@ just GDP but unemployment, wage inequality, and the capital income share move, p
 will need even better tools — and AI can help, if we arm it in turn. "After the break, I'm
 looking forward to discussing what those tools can improve in policymaking."
 
-### 58 · It takes all of us (1.5m)
+### 61 · It takes all of us (1.5m)
 Model-building has always been about making consequences visible before the choice.
 Statistical offices, EUROMOD, BEAMM, ministries, open models — each doing what it does best.
 "Which is exactly what the roundtable is about — see you at 16:00."
 
-### 59 · Thank you / QR (leave up)
+### 62 · Thank you / QR (leave up)
 QR → axiom.org. Links: axiom.org · policyengine.org/be · both GitHub orgs.
 
 ---

slideshows/iariw-2026/config.ts

@@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ import {
   MicrocosmDividerSlide,
   EngineDividerSlide,
   TogetherDividerSlide,
+  LookingForwardDividerSlide,
 } from './slides/SectionDivider';
 // 1 — Axiom
 import BridgeToEvolutionSlide from './slides/BridgeToEvolutionSlide';
@@ -57,6 +58,7 @@ import {
   ChronicleTargetsStaticSlide,
   AxiomCliffStaticSlide,
   AxiomChatbotStaticSlide,
+  ThesisSpmStaticSlide,
   ThesisBillsStaticSlide,
 } from './slides/DemoSlides';
 import {
@@ -68,6 +70,7 @@ import {
   ChronicleLiveSlide,
   AxiomCliffLiveSlide,
   AxiomChatbotLiveSlide,
+  ThesisForecastLiveSlide,
   ThesisLiveSlide,
 } from './slides/DemoLiveSlides2';
 // 5 — Together
@@ -161,8 +164,11 @@ export const iariw2026Config: SlideshowConfig = {
     TogetherDividerSlide,
     ConductorsSlide,
     ClosingLoopSlide,
+    ThesisForecastLiveSlide,
+    ThesisSpmStaticSlide,
     ThesisLiveSlide,
     ThesisBillsStaticSlide,
+    LookingForwardDividerSlide,
     ForecastUncertaintySlide,
     CommunityClosingSlide,
     QuestionsSlide,

slideshows/iariw-2026/slides/DemoLiveSlides2.tsx

@@ -42,6 +42,33 @@ export const ChronicleLiveSlide = () => (
   </LiveAppSlide>
 );
 
+export const ThesisForecastLiveSlide = () => (
+  <LiveAppSlide
+    title="A baseline forecast: SPM child poverty, 2025"
+    url="https://app.thesisinstitute.org/spm-child-poverty-2025"
+    displayUrl="app.thesisinstitute.org"
+  >
+    <div className="content-card p-5">
+      <div className="slide-tag mb-3">What you are seeing</div>
+      <p className="text-base text-gray-700 leading-relaxed">
+        A live forecast cell on a published government data point: the
+        Supplemental Poverty Measure child poverty rate for 2025, with an 80%
+        interval, the Census history behind it, and the analyst agent&apos;s
+        full reasoning trace.
+      </p>
+    </div>
+
+    <div className="content-card p-5">
+      <div className="slide-tag mb-3">How it resolves</div>
+      <p className="text-base text-gray-700 leading-relaxed">
+        When the Census Bureau publishes the 2025 rate in September, the
+        forecast is graded and the score goes on the public record &mdash;
+        per forecast, per agent.
+      </p>
+    </div>
+  </LiveAppSlide>
+);
+
 export const ThesisLiveSlide = () => (
   <LiveAppSlide
     title="Thesis: start from the bill, derive the outcomes"

slideshows/iariw-2026/slides/DemoSlides.tsx

@@ -65,6 +65,16 @@ export const ChronicleTargetsStaticSlide = () => (
   />
 );
 
+export const ThesisSpmStaticSlide = () => (
+  <ScreenshotSlide
+    title="A baseline forecast: SPM child poverty, 2025"
+    url="app.thesisinstitute.org"
+    src="/screenshots/iariw-2026/thesis-spm.png"
+    alt="Thesis forecast page for the 2025 SPM child poverty rate"
+    caption="Captured 27 Aug: 13.0% with an 80% interval of 11.9%-14.3%, alongside the Census history and the agent's full reasoning trace - graded when the official number lands in September 2026."
+  />
+);
+
 export const ThesisBillsStaticSlide = () => (
   <ScreenshotSlide
     title="Thesis: bill analyses"

slideshows/iariw-2026/slides/SectionDivider.tsx

@@ -71,3 +71,11 @@ export const TogetherDividerSlide = () => (
     subtitle="Putting it together — open forecasts of public outcomes, scored against reality."
   />
 );
+
+export const LookingForwardDividerSlide = () => (
+  <SectionDivider
+    number="6"
+    title="Looking forward"
+    subtitle="If the baseline moves — and what that asks of policy analysis."
+  />
+);