Wordmark roadmap + chronicle.institute + Thesis bills embeds (iariw-2026)

slideshows/iariw-2026/DEMO-SCRIPT.md

@@ -2,10 +2,11 @@
 
 The deck embeds the LIVE apps directly, each with an Expand button: slide 23 (Axiom App,
 Belgium), 28 (cliff analyzer, axiom.org/snap), 30 (chatbot, axiom.org/chatbot), 36
-(Chronicle targets drill), 43 (calibration dashboard), 49 (policyengine.org/be). You can
-drive the whole demo without leaving the deck; preloaded tabs remain smoother for deep
-interaction. Every beat has static screenshot slides right after it (24–27, 29, 31, 37, 44,
-50). If the network dies mid-beat, advance and keep talking.
+(chronicle.institute), 43 (calibration dashboard), 49 (policyengine.org/be), 55 (Thesis
+bill analyses, app.thesisinstitute.org/bills). You can drive the whole demo without leaving
+the deck; preloaded tabs remain smoother for deep interaction. Every beat has static
+screenshot slides right after it (24–27, 29, 31, 37, 44, 50, 56). If the network dies
+mid-beat, advance and keep talking.
 
 Cliff analyzer beat: Run reform → point at the allotment cliff near $2,100 and the
 marginal-rate spike → drag the earned income deduction slider → the cliff moves.
@@ -21,8 +22,10 @@ AI" → grounded vs plain on one screen. Never repeat the page's "certified" wor
    - https://axiom.org/validation
    - https://policyengine.org/be
    - https://microcosm.institute/calibration/dashboard/microcosm?country=be
+   - https://chronicle.institute
    - https://axiom.org/snap  (cliff analyzer)
    - https://axiom.org/chatbot  (chatbot — send one warm-up question so the backend is hot)
+   - https://app.thesisinstitute.org/bills
 2. On policyengine.org/be: confirm the yellow provenance banner renders and the
    "Society-wide impacts" tab shows €0.00B at baseline.
 3. Phone hotspot ready as backup. If neither works, the deck carries every beat.

slideshows/iariw-2026/SPEAKER-NOTES.md

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 
 IARIW–CAPE workshop "New technologies for evidence-based policy making"
 Thursday 27 August 2026 · 14:40–15:30 · Room P02, UCLouvain Saint-Louis, Brussels
-Deck: policyengine.org/slides/iariw-2026 (local: /slides/iariw-2026) · 57 slides, ~47 presented
+Deck: policyengine.org/slides/iariw-2026 (local: /slides/iariw-2026) · 59 slides, ~48 presented
 
 **Room:** IARIW measurement economists; Koen Algoed (Director General, Budget and Finance,
 Flemish Region) and Jean-Baptiste Traversa (head of microsimulation modelling, FPS Finance)
@@ -40,8 +40,7 @@ modeling groups' publication records.
 | 15:09 | 2 · Chronicle | 34–37 (skip 37) | 3 |
 | 15:12 | 3 · Microcosm | 38–45 (skip 44) | 6 |
 | 15:18 | 4 · PolicyEngine | 46–51 (skip 50) | 5 |
-| 15:23 | 5 · Thesis / together + the closing forecast beat | 52–57 | 6 |
-| 15:29 | Buffer | — | 1 |
+| 15:23 | 5 · Thesis / together + the closing forecast beat | 52–59 (skip 56) | 7 |
 
 Cut-first if long: Microplex (37), WhoUsesIt (40), and skim Evo3/Evo5. Static screenshot
 slides (22–25, 36, 42) are presented ONLY if the network dies.
@@ -105,12 +104,12 @@ Landing: AI is impressive at code, search, summarization. It is not a substitute
 "So what would the AI need? What do we arm it with?"
 
 ### 11 · What do we arm the AI with? (2m — the spine slide)
-Five primitives, each a project, each with a feedback loop:
-1 rules → Axiom (loop: oracles, zero unexplained mismatches) · 2 official statistics →
-Chronicle (loop: completeness + lineage) · 3 the world at micro level → Microcosm (loop:
-published calibration error, surveys held out) · 4 a model → PolicyEngine (loop: cross-engine
-agreement + users) · 5 judgment → Thesis (loop: forecasts that resolve — the most important).
-Landing: the same primitives norm AIs AND human researchers.
+Five primitives, stated as NEEDS — no project names yet (the wordmark reveal is slide 13):
+1 understand the policy rules (loop: oracles, zero unexplained mismatches) · 2 ready access
+to official statistics (loop: completeness + lineage) · 3 the world at micro level (loop:
+published calibration error, surveys held out) · 4 a model that computes reforms (loop:
+cross-engine agreement + users) · 5 judgment to put it together (loop: forecasts that
+resolve — the most important). Landing: the same primitives norm AIs AND human researchers.
 
 ### 12 · Six years under one roof (1.5m)
 The history: PolicyEngine since 2021 built the first four together — encoded US/UK rules (by
@@ -119,8 +118,9 @@ engine, the web app (still there, no longer the center). The realization behind
 each layer deserves its own name, users, and feedback loop — Axiom, Chronicle, Microcosm,
 PolicyEngine as the model that composes them, and Thesis scoring the forecasts.
 
-### 13 · Five primitives, five demos (30s)
-The roadmap. "Let's walk them."
+### 13 · Five primitives, five demos (45s — the reveal)
+The roadmap, now with the wordmarks: Axiom · chronicle · microcosm · PolicyEngine · thesis
+institute. "Each of these has a name, a public surface, and a demo. Let's walk them."
 
 ### 14–21 · Axiom divider → encoder evolution (30s + ~40s each Evo, ~5m)
 Divider, then the pivot: AI can't compute policy, it can help build the substrate that does.
@@ -170,12 +170,13 @@ EUROMOD on every case, blockers empty — certified = no, 81 open dependencies.
 For officials: this is the answer to "why trust an AI-built model" — you don't; you check
 the certificate.
 
-### 34–36 · Chronicle (3m — 36 is the live drill, 37 its fallback)
+### 34–36 · Chronicle (3m — 36 is the live site, 37 its fallback)
 Divider, then: official statistics as source-backed facts — typed values with units,
-geography, period, and lineage to the source artifact. 171,855 facts from 40 official
-publishers [chronicle main bundle, verified 2026-08-27]. Then the live drill (36): open a
-Belgian statistic on the targets page and trace it to its publisher — the 171,855 is the
-headline number on that slide. The Belgian shelf built in a week: Statbel
+geography, period, and lineage to the source artifact. 171,855 facts ingested from 40
+official publishers [chronicle main bundle, verified 2026-08-27]. Then chronicle.institute
+live (36): "a record of what official sources printed, and when" — the witnessed first-print
+journal (39,173 store facts on screen; values recorded as published, never reconciled or
+modeled). Say both numbers precisely: 171,855 ingested; 39,173 in the witnessed store. The Belgian shelf built in a week: Statbel
 fiscal income by €1,000 class, SPF Finances/ONSS/ONEM totals, Eurostat national accounts,
 FPB outlook, JRC EUROMOD baselines. The loop: Microcosm calibrates ONLY to sums of Chronicle
 facts — every target traces to a publisher; surveys enter as validation only.
@@ -243,7 +244,13 @@ We intend to score that. And the deeper point for 16:00: policy takes
 a different shape when baseline conditions change quickly; if you assign real probability to
 that, how does this community arm policymakers to respond?
 
-### 55 · And if the baseline itself moves? (1.5m — the closing forecast beat)
+### 55 · DEMO — Thesis bill analyses (1.5m; 56 is the fallback)
+app.thesisinstitute.org/bills: "start from the bill, derive the outcomes" — each analysis
+reads a bill's provisions, separates countersignable goals from likely effects, and maps
+candidate outcome metrics against the live forecast registry. The opening question, made
+practice. Labeled prototype; say so.
+
+### 57 · And if the baseline itself moves? (1.5m — the closing forecast beat)
 Everything before this slide matters regardless of how the economy evolves; if conditions
 change quickly, being nimble matters more. The chart: professional forecasters disagree less
 than ever about long-run growth (SPF 10-year IQR 0.2pp, half its 1990s level) — but asked
@@ -253,12 +260,12 @@ just GDP but unemployment, wage inequality, and the capital income share move, p
 will need even better tools — and AI can help, if we arm it in turn. "After the break, I'm
 looking forward to discussing what those tools can improve in policymaking."
 
-### 56 · It takes all of us (1.5m)
+### 58 · It takes all of us (1.5m)
 Model-building has always been about making consequences visible before the choice.
 Statistical offices, EUROMOD, BEAMM, ministries, open models — each doing what it does best.
 "Which is exactly what the roundtable is about — see you at 16:00."
 
-### 57 · Thank you / QR (leave up)
+### 59 · Thank you / QR (leave up)
 QR → axiom.org. Links: axiom.org · policyengine.org/be · both GitHub orgs.
 
 ---

slideshows/iariw-2026/config.ts

@@ -57,6 +57,7 @@ import {
   ChronicleTargetsStaticSlide,
   AxiomCliffStaticSlide,
   AxiomChatbotStaticSlide,
+  ThesisBillsStaticSlide,
 } from './slides/DemoSlides';
 import {
   DemoAxiomLiveSlide,
@@ -67,6 +68,7 @@ import {
   ChronicleLiveSlide,
   AxiomCliffLiveSlide,
   AxiomChatbotLiveSlide,
+  ThesisLiveSlide,
 } from './slides/DemoLiveSlides2';
 // 5 — Together
 import ConductorsSlide from './slides/ConductorsSlide';
@@ -159,6 +161,8 @@ export const iariw2026Config: SlideshowConfig = {
     TogetherDividerSlide,
     ConductorsSlide,
     ClosingLoopSlide,
+    ThesisLiveSlide,
+    ThesisBillsStaticSlide,
     ForecastUncertaintySlide,
     CommunityClosingSlide,
     QuestionsSlide,

slideshows/iariw-2026/slides/DemoLiveSlides2.tsx

@@ -7,31 +7,33 @@ import LiveAppSlide from './LiveAppSlide';
 export const ChronicleLiveSlide = () => (
   <LiveAppSlide
     title="Chronicle, live"
-    url="https://microcosm.institute/calibration/dashboard/microcosm/targets?country=be"
-    displayUrl="microcosm.institute"
+    url="https://chronicle.institute"
+    displayUrl="chronicle.institute"
   >
     <div className="content-card p-5 text-center">
       <div className="stat-number text-6xl">171,855</div>
       <p className="text-lg text-gray-700 mt-2 leading-snug">
         official statistics ingested as facts
       </p>
       <p className="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-2 leading-snug">
-        from 40 official publishers, with lineage to every source
+        from 40 official publishers &mdash; 39,173 of them in the witnessed
+        first-print store on screen
       </p>
     </div>
 
     <div className="content-card p-5">
       <div className="slide-tag mb-3">What you are seeing</div>
       <p className="text-base text-gray-700 leading-relaxed">
-        The Belgian target surface, drilled to source &mdash; every statistic
-        Microcosm calibrates to traces to the Chronicle fact and the publisher
-        behind it.
+        A record of what official sources printed, and when &mdash;
+        first-print values with provenance, revision history, and a stable
+        address for every fact. Recorded as published; never reconciled,
+        imputed, or modeled.
       </p>
     </div>
 
     <div className="pl-5 border-l-4 border-pe-teal mt-auto">
       <p className="text-sm text-gray-600 leading-relaxed italic">
-        The store itself is a public repo:{' '}
+        Also a public repo:{' '}
         <span className="font-mono not-italic">
           github.com/PolicyEngine/chronicle
         </span>
@@ -40,6 +42,32 @@ export const ChronicleLiveSlide = () => (
   </LiveAppSlide>
 );
 
+export const ThesisLiveSlide = () => (
+  <LiveAppSlide
+    title="Thesis: start from the bill, derive the outcomes"
+    url="https://app.thesisinstitute.org/bills"
+    displayUrl="app.thesisinstitute.org/bills"
+  >
+    <div className="content-card p-5">
+      <div className="slide-tag mb-3">What you are seeing</div>
+      <p className="text-base text-gray-700 leading-relaxed">
+        Each analysis reads a bill&apos;s provisions, separates what its
+        authors would sign their names to from what the text does regardless,
+        and maps candidate outcome metrics against the live forecast registry.
+      </p>
+    </div>
+
+    <div className="content-card p-5">
+      <div className="slide-tag mb-3">The loop, closing</div>
+      <p className="text-base text-gray-700 leading-relaxed">
+        This is where the opening question becomes practice: bills in, scored
+        forecasts out &mdash; every prediction graded when the official number
+        lands. A prototype, labeled as one.
+      </p>
+    </div>
+  </LiveAppSlide>
+);
+
 export const AxiomCliffLiveSlide = () => (
   <LiveAppSlide
     title="The cliff analyzer: reform the rules, watch the cliffs move"

slideshows/iariw-2026/slides/DemoSlides.tsx

@@ -57,11 +57,21 @@ export const DemoPeBeSlide = () => (
 
 export const ChronicleTargetsStaticSlide = () => (
   <ScreenshotSlide
-    title="Chronicle, drilled to source"
-    url="microcosm.institute"
-    src="/screenshots/iariw-2026/chronicle-targets.png"
-    alt="Target diagnostics page for Microcosm Belgium"
-    caption="252 statistics, 254 targets for Belgium alone — each drills to the Chronicle fact and the publisher behind it."
+    title="Chronicle"
+    url="chronicle.institute"
+    src="/screenshots/iariw-2026/chronicle-site.png"
+    alt="Chronicle: a record of what official sources printed, and when"
+    caption="The witnessed journal: first-print values with provenance and revision history — 39,173 store facts from 58 archived source packages."
+  />
+);
+
+export const ThesisBillsStaticSlide = () => (
+  <ScreenshotSlide
+    title="Thesis: bill analyses"
+    url="app.thesisinstitute.org/bills"
+    src="/screenshots/iariw-2026/thesis-bills.png"
+    alt="Thesis bill analyses: start from the bill, derive the outcomes"
+    caption="Each bill's provisions mapped to candidate outcome metrics against the live forecast registry — countersignable goals separated from likely effects."
   />
 );
 

slideshows/iariw-2026/slides/FivePrimitivesSlide.tsx

@@ -6,31 +6,26 @@ const primitives = [
   {
     n: '1',
     need: 'Understand the policy rules',
-    project: 'Axiom',
     loop: 'Loop: oracles — external engines re-run every encoding; zero unexplained mismatches.',
   },
   {
     n: '2',
     need: 'Ready access to official statistics',
-    project: 'Chronicle',
     loop: 'Loop: completeness against what publishers release, with lineage to every source.',
   },
   {
     n: '3',
     need: 'The world at a micro level',
-    project: 'Microcosm',
     loop: 'Loop: calibration error published per target; surveys held out for validation.',
   },
   {
     n: '4',
     need: 'A model that computes reforms',
-    project: 'PolicyEngine',
     loop: 'Loop: cross-engine agreement, and a community that uses the results.',
   },
   {
     n: '5',
     need: 'Judgment to put it together — expertise, discretion, uncertainty',
-    project: 'Thesis',
     loop: 'Loop: forecasts that resolve against reality — the most important one.',
   },
 ];
@@ -52,10 +47,9 @@ export default function FivePrimitivesSlide() {
             <div className="font-mono text-3xl font-bold text-pe-teal leading-none">
               {p.n}
             </div>
-            <p className="text-base text-gray-700 leading-snug mt-3">
+            <p className="text-lg font-bold text-pe-dark leading-snug mt-3">
               {p.need}
             </p>
-            <h3 className="text-xl font-bold text-pe-dark mt-2">{p.project}</h3>
             <p className="text-sm text-gray-500 leading-snug mt-auto pt-4">
               {p.loop}
             </p>