diff --git a/public/screenshots/iariw-2026/thesis-spm.png b/public/screenshots/iariw-2026/thesis-spm.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..33c39c7 Binary files /dev/null and b/public/screenshots/iariw-2026/thesis-spm.png differ diff --git a/slideshows/iariw-2026/DEMO-SCRIPT.md b/slideshows/iariw-2026/DEMO-SCRIPT.md index 06713aa..bbd4b83 100644 --- a/slideshows/iariw-2026/DEMO-SCRIPT.md +++ b/slideshows/iariw-2026/DEMO-SCRIPT.md @@ -3,10 +3,11 @@ The deck embeds the LIVE apps directly, each with an Expand button: slide 23 (Axiom App, Belgium), 28 (cliff analyzer, axiom.org/snap), 30 (chatbot, axiom.org/chatbot), 36 (chronicle.institute), 43 (calibration dashboard), 49 (policyengine.org/be), 55 (Thesis -bill analyses, app.thesisinstitute.org/bills). You can drive the whole demo without leaving -the deck; preloaded tabs remain smoother for deep interaction. Every beat has static -screenshot slides right after it (24–27, 29, 31, 37, 44, 50, 56). If the network dies -mid-beat, advance and keep talking. +baseline forecast, app.thesisinstitute.org/spm-child-poverty-2025), 57 (Thesis bill +analyses, app.thesisinstitute.org/bills). You can drive the whole demo without leaving the +deck; preloaded tabs remain smoother for deep interaction. Every beat has static screenshot +slides right after it (24–27, 29, 31, 37, 44, 50, 56, 58). If the network dies mid-beat, +advance and keep talking. Cliff analyzer beat: Run reform → point at the allotment cliff near $2,100 and the marginal-rate spike → drag the earned income deduction slider → the cliff moves. @@ -25,6 +26,7 @@ AI" → grounded vs plain on one screen. Never repeat the page's "certified" wor - https://chronicle.institute - https://axiom.org/snap (cliff analyzer) - https://axiom.org/chatbot (chatbot — send one warm-up question so the backend is hot) + - https://app.thesisinstitute.org/spm-child-poverty-2025 (baseline forecast) - https://app.thesisinstitute.org/bills 2. On policyengine.org/be: confirm the yellow provenance banner renders and the "Society-wide impacts" tab shows €0.00B at baseline. diff --git a/slideshows/iariw-2026/SPEAKER-NOTES.md b/slideshows/iariw-2026/SPEAKER-NOTES.md index 18ccfe5..1b10308 100644 --- a/slideshows/iariw-2026/SPEAKER-NOTES.md +++ b/slideshows/iariw-2026/SPEAKER-NOTES.md @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ IARIW–CAPE workshop "New technologies for evidence-based policy making" Thursday 27 August 2026 · 14:40–15:30 · Room P02, UCLouvain Saint-Louis, Brussels -Deck: policyengine.org/slides/iariw-2026 (local: /slides/iariw-2026) · 59 slides, ~48 presented +Deck: policyengine.org/slides/iariw-2026 (local: /slides/iariw-2026) · 62 slides, ~50 presented **Room:** IARIW measurement economists; Koen Algoed (Director General, Budget and Finance, Flemish Region) and Jean-Baptiste Traversa (head of microsimulation modelling, FPS Finance) @@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ modeling groups' publication records. | 15:09 | 2 · Chronicle | 34–37 (skip 37) | 3 | | 15:12 | 3 · Microcosm | 38–45 (skip 44) | 6 | | 15:18 | 4 · PolicyEngine | 46–51 (skip 50) | 5 | -| 15:23 | 5 · Thesis / together + the closing forecast beat | 52–59 (skip 56) | 7 | +| 15:23 | 5 · Thesis → 6 · Looking forward | 52–62 (skip 56, 58) | 7 | Cut-first if long: Microplex (37), WhoUsesIt (40), and skim Evo3/Evo5. Static screenshot slides (22–25, 36, 42) are presented ONLY if the network dies. @@ -244,13 +244,23 @@ We intend to score that. And the deeper point for 16:00: policy takes a different shape when baseline conditions change quickly; if you assign real probability to that, how does this community arm policymakers to respond? -### 55 · DEMO — Thesis bill analyses (1.5m; 56 is the fallback) +### 55 · DEMO — a baseline Thesis forecast: SPM child poverty (1.5m; 56 is the fallback) +app.thesisinstitute.org/spm-child-poverty-2025: a live forecast cell on a published +government data point — the 2025 SPM child poverty rate with an 80% interval, the Census +history, and the agent's full reasoning trace (assumptions AND caveats in the open; the +trace may show prototype infra notes — that transparency is the design). Graded when the +Census publishes in September. Start here so the bills demo lands as "the same machinery, +pointed at legislation." + +### 57 · DEMO — Thesis bill analyses (1.5m; 58 is the fallback) app.thesisinstitute.org/bills: "start from the bill, derive the outcomes" — each analysis reads a bill's provisions, separates countersignable goals from likely effects, and maps candidate outcome metrics against the live forecast registry. The opening question, made practice. Labeled prototype; say so. -### 57 · And if the baseline itself moves? (1.5m — the closing forecast beat) +### 59 · Looking forward (divider, 15s) + +### 60 · And if the baseline itself moves? (1.5m — the closing forecast beat) Everything before this slide matters regardless of how the economy evolves; if conditions change quickly, being nimble matters more. The chart: professional forecasters disagree less than ever about long-run growth (SPF 10-year IQR 0.2pp, half its 1990s level) — but asked @@ -260,12 +270,12 @@ just GDP but unemployment, wage inequality, and the capital income share move, p will need even better tools — and AI can help, if we arm it in turn. "After the break, I'm looking forward to discussing what those tools can improve in policymaking." -### 58 · It takes all of us (1.5m) +### 61 · It takes all of us (1.5m) Model-building has always been about making consequences visible before the choice. Statistical offices, EUROMOD, BEAMM, ministries, open models — each doing what it does best. "Which is exactly what the roundtable is about — see you at 16:00." -### 59 · Thank you / QR (leave up) +### 62 · Thank you / QR (leave up) QR → axiom.org. Links: axiom.org · policyengine.org/be · both GitHub orgs. --- diff --git a/slideshows/iariw-2026/config.ts b/slideshows/iariw-2026/config.ts index 1056549..340ed7b 100644 --- a/slideshows/iariw-2026/config.ts +++ b/slideshows/iariw-2026/config.ts @@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ import { MicrocosmDividerSlide, EngineDividerSlide, TogetherDividerSlide, + LookingForwardDividerSlide, } from './slides/SectionDivider'; // 1 — Axiom import BridgeToEvolutionSlide from './slides/BridgeToEvolutionSlide'; @@ -57,6 +58,7 @@ import { ChronicleTargetsStaticSlide, AxiomCliffStaticSlide, AxiomChatbotStaticSlide, + ThesisSpmStaticSlide, ThesisBillsStaticSlide, } from './slides/DemoSlides'; import { @@ -68,6 +70,7 @@ import { ChronicleLiveSlide, AxiomCliffLiveSlide, AxiomChatbotLiveSlide, + ThesisForecastLiveSlide, ThesisLiveSlide, } from './slides/DemoLiveSlides2'; // 5 — Together @@ -161,8 +164,11 @@ export const iariw2026Config: SlideshowConfig = { TogetherDividerSlide, ConductorsSlide, ClosingLoopSlide, + ThesisForecastLiveSlide, + ThesisSpmStaticSlide, ThesisLiveSlide, ThesisBillsStaticSlide, + LookingForwardDividerSlide, ForecastUncertaintySlide, CommunityClosingSlide, QuestionsSlide, diff --git a/slideshows/iariw-2026/slides/DemoLiveSlides2.tsx b/slideshows/iariw-2026/slides/DemoLiveSlides2.tsx index 2caa044..9c9d6d6 100644 --- a/slideshows/iariw-2026/slides/DemoLiveSlides2.tsx +++ b/slideshows/iariw-2026/slides/DemoLiveSlides2.tsx @@ -42,6 +42,33 @@ export const ChronicleLiveSlide = () => ( ); +export const ThesisForecastLiveSlide = () => ( + +
+
What you are seeing
+

+ A live forecast cell on a published government data point: the + Supplemental Poverty Measure child poverty rate for 2025, with an 80% + interval, the Census history behind it, and the analyst agent's + full reasoning trace. +

+
+ +
+
How it resolves
+

+ When the Census Bureau publishes the 2025 rate in September, the + forecast is graded and the score goes on the public record — + per forecast, per agent. +

+
+ +); + export const ThesisLiveSlide = () => ( ( /> ); +export const ThesisSpmStaticSlide = () => ( + +); + export const ThesisBillsStaticSlide = () => ( ( subtitle="Putting it together — open forecasts of public outcomes, scored against reality." /> ); + +export const LookingForwardDividerSlide = () => ( + +);